PIERRE, S.D. – U.S. cattle markets have experienced sustained high prices due to tight supplies and robust domestic demand throughout the first half of 2024.
However, signs are emerging that this trend may not continue. The July Cattle on Feed report showed figures within expectations, providing no new bullish data to propel prices further.
As the U.S. enters the latter half of the year, shifts in consumer spending from summer grilling to back-to-school needs are likely reducing beef consumption. This change is reflected in declining daily beef cutout values since early July.
Additionally, U.S. beef exports have decreased compared to last year, partly due to strong global competition and a high U.S. dollar value, making American beef less attractive on the international market.
Brazil, in contrast, has reported a 30% increase in beef exports, underscoring the heightened competition U.S. producers face. Furthermore, the U.S. is seeing a rise in beef imports, with projections showing a 12% increase in 2024 over the previous year.
Given these factors, the cattle market is at a crucial juncture. With the support line from a four-year uptrend under threat, stakeholders in the cattle industry need to consider long-term strategies for risk and opportunity management as market dynamics evolve.
