BISMARCK, N.D. – The USDA says food inflation is easing, but not so for farm costs. Consumers may be getting a bit of a break from grocery price inflation which topped 11 percent in 2022.
“So, for food at home or grocery prices, last year we saw prices increase by five percent in 2023,” according to USDA economist Megan Sweitzer. “This year, in 2024, we’re forecasting those grocery prices to increase by one percent.”
And USDA’s grocery price forecast for next year looks even better as Sweitzer says, “So, in 2025, food at home or grocery prices are predicted to increase by 0.7 percent. Food away from home prices are predicted to increase by three percent, and prices for all food, both food at home and food away from home, are predicted to increase by two percent in 2025.”
Meantime, farming costs remain elevated, and USDA forecasts are only slightly lower than the record high reached in 2022. Only fertilizer and chemical prices were expected to ease from last year.
Since 2020, total costs paid by farmers to raise crops and care for livestock increased by more than $100 billion, or 28 percent, to an all-time high of $460 billion in 2023. USDA forecasts a 27 percent drop or 43 billion dollars in net farm income, with prices for several major field crops expected to fall below break-even levels this year.
That all highlights the need for a modernized farm bill with adjustments for price supports, crop insurance, export promotion, and research.
