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Placements were wild card leading up to October Cattle on Feed Report


American Farm Bureau Federation & News Staff - October 28, 2019

WASHINGTON, DC - Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on Oct. 1, 2019. The inventory was 1% below Oct. 1, 2018, USDA reported Friday.  Marketings in September were 1.738 million head, up 1.1% from a year ago, matching the average analyst expectation of a 1.1% increase.  Other disappearance totaled 59,000 head during September, 4% above 2018.

This year-over-year decrease of 1.1% is right on the dot of analysts’ expectations, which also anticipated an average decrease of 1.1% in feedlot inventories.

Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2.09 million head, 2% above 2018. Net placements were 2.03 million head. During September, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 420,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 355,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 460,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 475,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 273,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 110,000 head.

The inventory included 6.87 million steers and steer calves, down 3% from the previous year. This group accounted for 61% of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.41 million head, up 2% from 2018.

The uncertainty in placements was the backdrop for this report.  Analysts predicted an average 1.5% increase from August 2018 in September placements. However, there was a great degree of uncertainty in analysts’ expectations for the placement number, resulting in a very large range of a 4.9% decrease to and 7.6% increase. Placements in September totaled 2.093 million head, which is 2% above 2018 levels. The number of placements came in slightly above the average analyst forecast, but remained well within the large range. September’s number breaks the four-month streak of year-over-year declines in placements.

Uncertainty surrounding analysts’ estimates was fed by many factors. Feeder and fed cattle prices have largely recovered since the August fire at Tyson’s packing plant, which some thought could mean the market was in a better place to pull more animals through the system.

Drought conditions in key cow-calf regions in the U.S., are another factor that could potentially impact placements. Drought across parts of Texas and the Southeast could have forced producers to pull animals off of pasture early to place on feed, which could have increased the number of feeder cattle on feed in the lighter weight categories. This report somewhat confirmed that theory, with larger increases in placements occurring in lighter weight classes year over year, as well as month over month, for the most part. Although, placements were up month-over-month in all weight classes, month-over-month increases were highest in the 600-699 lbs category, coming in at an increase of 55,000 head.

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On October 1, there were 2.44 million head of cattle and calves on feed in the Northern High Plains, 88 percent of the state's total. The number on feed across the area was up 5 percent from last year and up 1 percent from the September 1 total. September placements in the Northern High Plains totaled 402 thousand head, up 4 percent from the August total. Marketings were down 13 percent from last month at 354 thousand head.

Minnesota cattle on feed down 25,000 head
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in Minnesota for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 105,000 head on October 1, 2019, according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Cattle on Feed report. This is up 5,000 head from last month but down 25,000 head from last year.

Placements during September totaled 22,000 head, up 8,000 head from August but down 2,000 head from last year. Marketings for September were 16,000 head, down 7,000 head from August and down 2,000 head from last year. Other disappearance totaled 1,000 head.

Iowa cattle on feed down 7 percent
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in Iowa feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 640,000 head on October 1, 2019, according to the latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service . This was up 2 percent from September 1, 2019, but down 7 percent from October 1, 2018. Iowa feedlots with a capacity of less than 1,000 head had 480,000 head on feed, unchanged from last month but down 8 percent from last year. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in all Iowa feedlots totaled 1,120,000 head, up 1 percent from last month but down 7 percent from last year.

Placements of cattle and calves in Iowa feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head during September totaled 82,000 head, up 15 percent from August but down 8 percent from last year. Feedlots with a capacity of less than 1,000 head placed 85,000 head, up 67 percent from August and up 63 percent from last year. Placements for all feedlots in Iowa totaled 167,000 head, up 37 percent from August and up 18 percent from last year.

Marketings of fed cattle from Iowa feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head during September totaled 70,000 head, up 1 percent from August but down 7 percent from last year. Feedlots with a capacity of less than 1,000 head marketed 80,000 head, up 4 percent from August and up 60 percent from last year. Marketings for all feedlots in Iowa were 150,000 head, up 3 percent from August and up 20 percent from last year. Other disappearance from all feedlots in Iowa totaled 7,000 head

Nebraska cattle on feed down 7 percent
LINCOLN, Neb. — Nebraska feedlots, with capacities of 1,000 or more head, contained 2.27 million cattle on feed on October 1, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. This inventory was down 7 percent from last year. Placements during September totaled 530,000 head, up 2 percent from 2018. Fed cattle marketings for the month of September totaled 410,000 head, unchanged from last year. Other disappearance during September totaled 10,000 head, unchanged from last year.

Kansas cattle on feed
Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in Kansas feedlots with capacity of 1,000 heard or more totaled 2.38 million head. Placements totaled  435,000. Cattle marketed 350,000 head. Other disappearances totaled 10,000 head, unchanged from last year.

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Texas cattle on feed up 5 percent
Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in Texas feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more totaled 2.78 million head on October 1, 2019, up 5 percent from a year ago. Producers placed 455 thousand head in commercial feedlots during September, up 15 percent from a year ago. Texas commercial feeders marketed 390 thousand head during September, down 4 percent from 2018.

Oklahoma cattle on feed down 3 percent
Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in Oklahoma feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more totaled 315 thousand head on October 1, 2019, down 3 percent from a year ago. Producers placed 46 thousand head in commercial feedlots during September, down 16 percent from a year ago. Oklahoma commercial feeders marketed 44 thousand head during September, down 8 percent from 2018. Other disappearance during September totaled 2 thousand head, unchanged from a year ago

 



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