U.S. beef cowherd at another historic low

WASHINGTON, D.C. – There are fewer beef cows in the U.S. today than there were a year ago, which pushes the U.S. beef cow herd to yet another historic low.” The USDA’s long-awaited Cattle Inventory Report indicates further contraction of the U.S. herd is likely.

Of the top 10 beef-producing states in the U.S., the year-over-year changes in each of their individual beef cow inventories varied: Texas up 1%, Oklahoma up 1%, Missouri up 2%, Nebraska down 3%, South Dakota down 3%, Kansas steady, Montana up 1%, Kentucky down 4%, Florida steady and North Dakota up 1%.

At the start of 2025, the number of heifers weighing 500 pounds and heavier were 1% lower than at the start of 2024. That includes 1% year-to-year declines for beef, dairy, and all other replacement heifers.

Not only was the total number of beef cows lower for January 2025 than it was compared to a year ago, but the number of beef replacement heifers was also down 1% compared to a year ago, which indicates that the vast majority of heifer calves are still being marketed as feeder calves as opposed to being kept back as replacement females.

The number of calves weighing less than 500 pounds and the 2024 calf crop were slightly below a year ago.

All cows and heifers that have calved were down modestly, with a 1% decrease in beef cows canceling out a slight increase in milk cows.

Steers and bulls weighing 500 pounds and heavier and the total U.S. cattle inventory were down 1%.

Calves under 500 pounds as of Jan. 1, 2025, totaled 13.5 million head, down slightly from Jan. 1, 2024.

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 14.3 million head on Jan. 1, 2025. The inventory is down 1% from the Jan. 1, 2024, total of 14.4 million head. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 82.7% of the total cattle on feed on Jan. 1, 2025, up slightly from the previous year. The combined total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots), at 24.6 million head, was slightly below Jan. 1, 2024.

CALF CROP DOWN SLIGHTLY

The 2024 calf crop in the United States was estimated at 33.5 million head, down slightly from the previous year’s calf crop, according to USDA NASS. Calves born during the first half of 2024 were estimated at 24.6 million head, down slightly from the first half of 2023. Calves born during the second half of 2024 were estimated at 8.93 million head, 27% of the total 2024 calf crop.

REVISIONS

All inventory and calf crop estimates for July 1, 2023, and Jan. 1, 2024, were reviewed using calf crop, official slaughter, import and export data, and the relationship of new survey information to the prior surveys. Based on the findings of this review, July 1, 2023, all cows and heifers that have calved decreased by 0.3% and 2023 calf crop decreased by 0.1%. Jan. 1, 2024, all cows and heifers that have calved decreased by 0.6%.

State-level estimates were reviewed, and changes were made to reallocate inventory estimates to the United States total, according to USDA NASS.

The numbers were close to expectations and look neutral to potentially supportive, but that will also depend on beef demand and the cost of feed, along with other factors, including how much of the report was already dialed into current prices.

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