Western South Dakota's Only Ranch Station

USDA supply/demand report lowers corn projections, beef production increases

National Cattlemen's Beef Association

WASHINGTON, D.C. – USDA released the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) as well as Crop Production reports that lowered crop acreage, yield and overall production for corn and soybeans.

USDA on Friday shaved corn production 146 million bushels to 14.35 billion bushels, but increased soybean production 25 million bushels to 4.53 billion bushels, which went against the pre-report estimates on soybeans.

The August 12th WASDE report sees bigger beef and broiler production but has trimmed pork and turkey outlooks.

Beef production is pegged at 27.99 billion pounds, up 68 million due to second half slaughter expectations.  Both the third and fourth quarters of 2022 saw increases from July’s WASDE report as third-quarter steer prices are expected to average $140 (up $1) and fourth-quarter prices are expected to average $147 (up $2). The first quarter of 2023 saw a $1 increase, as steers are expected to average $151, but the second quarter held steady for 2023 steer prices at $152. 2022 beef imports were reduced by 56 million pounds, while beef exports grew by 65 million pounds. 2023 beef imports saw no changes from July’s report, but 2023’s estimated exports grew by 40 million pounds.

Pork is seen at 27.078 billion pounds, down 81 million because of a slower third quarter slaughter pace.  With market-ready hogs being in short supply, quarterly price projections for both the third and fourth quarters of 2022 were raised from July’s report. Hog prices in the third quarter are expected to average $85 (up $9) and fourth-quarter prices are expected to average $69 (up $3). No changes were made to the price projections in 2023.

Broilers are estimated 45.363 billion pounds, 68 million higher, on recent production data and fourth quarter projections, with an average price of $1.461 per pound, down $0.068, and lower exports, in addition to higher exports and consumption.

Turkey production is anticipated to be 5.314 billion pounds, 45 million lower due to the year-to-date processing pace and hatchery numbers, with an average price of $1.513 per pound, up $0.035, a big jump in imports, slight rise for exports, and modest cut for consumption.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out September 12th.

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