WASHINGTON, D.C. – The USDA lowered 2023 pork and broiler production estimates while raising beef and leaving turkey unchanged in its February 8, 2023 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report.
Meanwhile, USDA is seeing higher ending stocks for both corn and soybeans according to the agency. The agency said this month’s 2022-2023 US corn outlook is for there to be lower corn utilized for ethanol and overall larger ending stockpiles of the crop.
Beef production is expected to be 26.495 billion pounds, 50 million more than in January on a higher first quarter slaughter guess against lower carcass weights, with an average steer price of $159 per hundredweight, up $.50, and higher imports with steady exports and consumption.
Pork is figured at 27.435 billion pounds, 45 million less than last month on lighter carcass weights in the first half of the year, with an average barrow and gilt price of $66.50 per hundredweight, down $1.50, slightly lower consumption, and steady imports and exports.
Broilers are seen at 46.7 billion pounds, a decline of 200 million due to hatchery and slaughter data, with an average price of $1.265 per pound, $.02 lower, and drops for consumption and imports against steady exports.
Turkey is projected at 5.56 billion pounds, unchanged on the month, with an average price of $1.62 per pound, up $.02, with steady imports, slower exports, and higher consumption.
The USDA’s next round of 2023 meat production estimates is out March 8th.
Producers are reminded the crop insurance prices for corn and soybeans are averaged during February. The average price to date 2/7/2023 for corn is $5.96 with soybeans at $13.68. March 15 is the last day to make any changes for this year’s corn and soybean coverage levels. In addition, producers will need to get with their FSA office to make final selections for any ARC or PLC payments made as part of the current Farm Bill.
CORN
USDA raised domestic corn ending stocks by 25 mb to 1.267 bb. The agency left production estimates unchanged at 13.73 bb. On the demand side, USDA left exports unchanged, but lowered ethanol usage by 25 mb.
The national average farm gate price was also unchanged at $6.70 per bushel.
Global ending stocks declined by slightly more than 1 mmt, to 295.28 mmt. Brazilian corn production was left unchanged at 125 mmt, while Argentina’s crop was trimmed 5 mmt to 47 mmt on ongoing drought concerns. USDA sees higher production in the Philippines and Vietnam offsetting some of Argentina’s decline. USDA sees higher exports from Brazil, up 3 mmt to 76 mmt.
SOYBEANS
USDA increased soybean ending stocks to 225 mb, up 15 mb from last month, reflecting a 15 mb decline in estimates of U.S. crush. All other demand estimates were left unchanged. The national average farm gate price rose by a dime to $14.30 per bushel.
Globally, USDA trimmed ending stocks by 1.5 mmt. It left Brazilian production unchanged at 153 mmt, but lowered Argentina’s output by 4.5 mmt to 41 mmt amid ongoing drought concerns. USDA says higher stocks in China will partly offset lower South American supplies.
WHEAT
USDA estimates for U.S. 2022-2023 wheat ending stocks were increased to 568 mb, below the pre-report estimate of 579 mb. USDA left wheat exports the same at 775 mb.
The average U.S. farmgate price for wheat was pegged at $9.00 per bushel, down from $9.10 from the January report.
USDA estimates world wheat production at 783.8 mmt, an increase from 781.31 mmt in January. There was disagreement heading into report day between what USDA expected at 781.31 mmt versus the 796 mmt from the International Grains Council.
Wheat exports from Russia were estimated at 43.5 mmt, an increase from 43 mmt last month, while USDA estimates Ukraine exports at 13.5 mmt, an increase from 13 mmt in January.
USDA’s estimates world ending wheat stocks at 269.34 mmt in February, a slight bump up from 268.39 in January.
LIVESTOCK
Wednesday’s WASDE report favored the cattle and beef markets. Beef production for 2023 was raised by 50 million pounds, as the first quarter of 2023 grew by 140 million pounds from last month’s projections, which more than offset the 90-million-pound decline projected for the second quarter of the year. The large production for the first quarter of 2023 stems from aggressive cow slaughter, while the reduction for the second quarter portrays tighter fed cattle supplies.
Price projections for the first quarter of 2023 gained $1.00 to average $158.00 from January’s report, and the second quarter prices grew by $2.00 from January’s report to now be projected at $159.00. Both the third and fourth quarters of the year remained steady at $157 (third quarter) and $162.00 (fourth quarter). Beef imports for 2023 grew by 25 million pounds, while exports remained steady.
Wednesday’s WASDE report shared mixed findings for the pork complex. Pork production fell by 45 million pounds from January’s report as carcass weights are lighter than originally expected. Unfortunately, both the first and second quarters of 2023 saw price decreases compared to January’s report for the anticipated quarterly price projections. Barrow and gilt prices in the first quarter are expected to average $58.00, which is $5.00 cheaper than January’s projection, and second quarter prices are now expected to average $71.00 which is $1.00 lighter than what January’s WASDE report forecasted. Pork imports and pork exports for 2023 both remained steady.
Access the full report here.
