OMAHA, NE — The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for livestock contained a number of new considerations for dairy and beef, while also reflecting the ongoing Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza-related production and economic impacts in the poultry sector.
The February WASDE report, released Tuesday, Feb.11, 2025, was the first to reflect updated pricing formulas of the recently approved Federal Milk Marketing Order amendments in the report’s milk and dairy product pricing forecasts.
WASDE estimates for beef also factored in USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) Feb. 1 announcement to resume cattle imports from Mexico through approved facilities and newly implemented protocols to mitigate the spread of New World Screwworm.
USDA cut Argentina’s soybean production by 3 million metric tons (mmt) to 49 mmt, while leaving Brazil’s unchanged at 169 mmt. Global ending stocks declined by 4 mmt to 124 mmt, below the range of pre-report expectations. Domestic ending stocks were left unchanged.
USDA cut both Argentina and Brazil’s corn production estimates by 1 mmt, to 50 mmt and 126 mmt, respectively.
This week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) new-crop U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn, soybeans, and wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were moderately bullish for corn, moderately bullish for soybeans and neutral for wheat, he said.
USDA released its February Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Tuesday.
View full reports here:
— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
CORN
The farmgate price for 2024-25 was increased 10 cents a bushel to $4.35 a bushel.
That was the only change USDA made in domestic corn numbers.
Corn production for the 2024-25 crop was 14.867 billion bushels (bb). USDA held the national yield at 179.3 bushels per acre. Harvested acres were 82.9 million.
For demand, projected total Feed and Residual use is 5.775 bb. Ethanol use is forecast at 5.5 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.665 bb.
Corn exports are pegged at 2.45 bb.
Ending stocks for the 2024-25 crop were 1.54 bb.
Globally, USDA also lowered production for both Brazil and Argentina. Brazil’s production was lowered 1 mmt to 127 mmt, and Brazil’s exports were also lowered 1 mmt to 46 mmt. Argentina’s production was cut 1 mmt to 50 mmt, but exports were held at 36 mmt, the same as last month.
Globally, 2024-25 corn beginning stocks came in at 315.81 million metric tons, down 1.65 mmt. Global ending stocks were pegged at 290.31 mmt, down 3.03 mmt.
SOYBEANS
USDA left the U.S. soybean supply and demand balance sheet unchanged for the 2024-25 crop year, except for lowering the national average farmgate price by a dime to $10.10 per bushel.
Production was pegged at 4.366 billion bushels, imports at 20 million bushels and beginning stocks at 342 mb, for total supplies of 4.729 billion bushels. USDA anticipates 2.41 bb being crushed, 1.825 bb being exported, 78 mb being used as seed and 36 mb in the residual category.
Ending stocks were unchanged at 380 mb.
Globally, USDA cut ending stocks to 124.34 mmt, 4.03 mmt less than last month. The largest change came in production, particularly for Argentina, which was trimmed 3 mmt to 49 mmt. Brazil’s production was unchanged at 169 mmt.
WHEAT
USDA estimates 2024-2025 domestic wheat ending stocks at 794 million bushels, down 4 million bushels from 798 mb in January. USDA estimated wheat exports at 850 mb, unchanged from last month. Imports were estimated at 130 mb, also the same as in January.
The average U.S. farmgate price for wheat also was unchanged at $5.55 per bushel.
Domestic use was estimated at 1.154 billion bushels, up 4 mb from last month.
Exports came in at 850 mb, the same as January.
USDA estimates world wheat production at 793.79 million metric tons, a slight increase from 793.24 mmt last month. World wheat ending stocks were estimated at 257.56 mmt, a decrease from 258.82 mmt in January.
Wheat production in Argentina was estimated at 17.7 mmt, up 0.2 mmt from January. Australian production was estimated at 32 mmt, unchanged from last month.
Wheat exports from Russia are estimated at 45.5 mmt, down 0.5 mmt from last month. USDA estimates Ukraine exports at 15.5 mmt, also down 0.5 mmt.
LIVESTOCK
Tuesday’s WASDE report was supportive to the cattle and beef markets of 2025, said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.
“Beef production for 2025 was increased by 775 million pounds as carcass weights remain historically high, and just last week, APHIS announced that Mexican cattle imports would resume, which ensures additional supply. All four quarters of 2025 for projected steer prices also saw an increase as steers in the first quarter are expected to average $205 (up $11 from last month), second-quarter prices are expected to average $200 (up $6 from last month), third-quarter prices are expected to average $198 (up $2 from last month) and steers in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $200 (up $2 from last month). 2025 beef imports remained unchanged at 4,770 million pounds, but beef export for 2025 were raised by 200 million pounds to 2,795 million pounds upon continued excellent global demand.”
Tuesday’s WASDE report was mixed for the hog and pork markets of 2025, Stewart said.
“Pork production for 2025 was increased by 20 million pounds thanks to higher carcass weights. All in all, quarterly price projections for hog prices didn’t change much, as only the first quarter of 2025 saw a slight increase as hog prices are now projected to average $62 (up $1 from last month), second-quarter prices remained unchanged at $66, third-quarter prices remained unchanged at $70 and fourth-quarter prices remained unchanged.
